The Pandemic Treaty - what comes next?
In this piece, we explain the next steps and timelines for moving the treaty towards entry into force, should the text be adopted by the World Health Assembly in May.
A draft resolution for the Pandemic Treaty is circulating in advance of the final Intergovernmental Negotiating Body meetings this week at the World Health Organization in Geneva. The resolution lays out the next steps should the treaty be adopted at May’s World Health Assembly (WHA). In this brief, we explain the next steps as currently being proposed.
The Centrality of Pathogen Access & Benefits Sharing (PABS)
The draft resolution gives significant weight to completing negotiations on the proposed Pathogen Access and Benefits Sharing (PABS) Annex. A proposed Intergovernmental Working Group (IGWG), the body that will help prepare for the first meeting of the Treaty Conference of Parties (COP), can only start its other work when the PABS Annex is finalized and its outcome submitted to the WHA in 2026. This proposed pathway allows negotiations to continue without having to extend the INB’s mandate beyond the WHA in 2025. The Bureau’s latest text proposes that the Agreement not enter into force until the PABS Annex has been adopted - not just the PABS provisions, but the Agreement as a whole. This language is better placed in the resolution as if part of the agreement, it becomes a non-negotiable for treaty adoption.
What’s the IGWG Actually Being Asked to Do?
The first task is to finalize negotiations on a PABS Annex for submission to the WHA in May 2026. The next is to prepare for “COP-1” – the first meeting of the Conference of the Parties – outlined in paragraphs (2) and (3) of the draft resolution. Without the Annex on PABS, the Agreement is not considered complete. So until and unless the PABS Annex is agreed, even though the main text of the Agreement might get adopted this year, the IGWG is effectively still in “negotiation mode,” not “preparation mode.”
Ratification
Ordinarily, one would expect a ratification push right after WHA adoption – as envisioned in the draft resolution.
Realistically, some countries may delay ratifying until the Annex is adopted, as the agreement can only come into force when the PABS Annex is finalized. Also, countries may be unlikely to endorse the signing or ratification of a still-incomplete agreement. This additional step (adopting the PABS Annex) would delay the timeline by about a year from what was previously envisioned.
What is the likely timeline under the proposed approach?
WHA 2025: Agreement adopted, but missing the PABS Annex.
Between WHA 2025 and 2026, IGWG will work on the PABS Annex. The agreement will remain open for signature and ratification through this period, but it remains to be seen how many States will sign/ratify.
WHA 2026: PABS Annex (hopefully) adopted.
Post-WHA 2026: More countries start signing and ratifying the complete Agreement. IGWG prepares for the first meeting of the COP-1.
Entry into Force: 30th day after the 60th ratification is in. If 60 ratifications were received 30 days before the Annex was adopted, entry into force would occur upon adoption of the Annex.
COP-1: Held within a year after entry into force.
What About Monitoring and Reporting?
The IGWG’s current priorities are focused on what needs to happen before COP-1, implying that work on the reporting instrument or monitoring framework and implementation mechanism won’t happen until after COP-1, in preparation for COP-2.
We would argue that the IGWG should at least consider groundwork for a reporting framework, as COP-1 will need a solid foundation to make decisions for meaningful progress before COP-2.
We would like to thank Jonathan Liberman for his contribution to this assessment.